A typical Algerian Y-DNA Result: North African (E1b1b)...> Berber-Maghrebi (M81)...> Numidian (PF2548)

First Result: Haplogroup E1b1b (North African Marker)

This test was conducted by easyDNA: https://easydna.co.uk/

Haplogroup E1b1b

• Time of Origin: ~24,000–27,000 years ago

• Place of Origin: East Africa or the Levant

• Description:

  • The third most common haplogroup in Europe

  • Widespread among North African and Southwest Asian populations

  • A foundational lineage of the North Africans (Maghrebi and Egyptians) populations

What Is a Short Tandem Repeat (STR)?

A Short Tandem Repeat (STR) is a short DNA sequence (usually 2–6 base pairs) that is repeated several times in a row at a specific location on the Y chromosome.

• Example: At a marker like DYS393, the sequence "AGAT" might be repeated 13 times:
  AGATAGATAGAT... → 13 repeats = value 13

• Each marker (DYS456, DYS390, etc.) has a different repeat unit and location.

STRs mutate relatively quickly (every few hundred generations), so:

• They are useful for recent ancestry and relationship testing

• But they are not reliable for deep evolutionary trees

STRs are still useful for estimating which haplogroup or subclade someone might belong to, based on pattern similarity. In fact, they are commonly used in commercial tests like FamilyTreeDNA or DNA Origins.

However, subclades are defined by SNPs, not STRs.

SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms):

• A single-letter mutation (like A → G) at a specific base-pair position

• Occur very rarely and are stable over thousands of years

• Used to define haplogroups and their branches.

Main Subclades of E1b1b: M81, M78, and V13

These are the names of SNP mutations that define subclades of E1b1b:

Subclade	SNP Defining It	Approximate Age	Notes
E-M81	Mutation M81	~5,600–7,000 ybp	Common in North Africa (Berbers)
E-M78	Mutation M78	~12,000–14,000 ybp	Nile Valley, East Africa, also Europe
E-V13	Mutation V13	~5,000–7,000 ybp	Balkans and Mediterranean Europe

Estimated Subclade Probabilities (based on STR profile by ChatGPT)

 

Subclade	STR Match Probability	Notes
E-M81	~95–98%	Classic North African (Berber) pattern: 13–24–14–11–13 is textbook E-M81. Your profile fits like a glove.
E-M78	~1–3%	Some overlap, but key markers (e.g. DYS391 = 9, DYS458 = 18) make this unlikely
E-V13	<1%	Values like DYS456 = 15 and DYS391 = 9 do not support Balkan pattern

NevGen Predictor 

We can use a pattern-matching approach based on public tools and empirical frequency databases such as: 

NevGen Y-DNA Haplogroup Predictor (https://www.nevgen.org/)

• NevGen is a widely used predictor that builds on the Bayesian approach, enhanced by:

  • Empirical allele frequencies per subclade (e.g. E‑M81, E‑M78, E‑V13)

  • STR marker correlations (for example, how DYS390 = 24 correlates with DYS391 = 9 within subclades) 

• It limits over-counting by using at most two correlated values per marker and prefers negative correlations to refine predictions 

• The web version uses data sets of 17 or 23 STR markers and outputs probabilities and "fitness" scores in batch mode 

• NevGen’s accuracy has been tested extensively:

  • Simulated “descendant” haplotypes across 40 generations were used to test prediction performance.

  • On ~67 markers, accuracy is around 89%, and on full 111-marker profiles, ~97% on original samples, slightly lower on simulated ones 

• These tests validate that if a predicted haplogroup receives >80% probability, it's almost always correct

Second Result: E-M81 Subclade (Berber-Maghrebi Marker)

Based on STR analysis and NevGen prediction, I belong to the paternal haplogroup E1b1b1b1a1 (E-M81). This lineage is common among Berber-descended, both Berber-speaking as well as Arabic-speaking populations, in North Africa.

The probability is 100  per cent, with fitness score of 70.

Fitness score measures how closely the STR values match the known STR signature for that subclade.

• It’s a quantitative match score, usually ranging from 0 to 100

• Higher fitness = closer genetic fit

In summary, I belong to haplogroup E-M81 (defined by V257 > M81):

• Origin: ~5,600–7,000 years ago (Copper Age)

• Location: Almost certainly North Africa, especially the Maghreb

• Expansion: Rapid population growth and expansion around Neolithic–Chalcolithic transition, coinciding with Berberization of the region

From here, the line split into several downstream clades like PF2546, M299, BY45625, Z5009, etc.

Third Result: E-M81- PF2548 (Numidian Marker)

E-M81 is a broad clade with many sub-branches, formed by additional SNP mutations over the past ~5,000–7,000 years.

I am not just E-M81, but specifically:

$$\mathbf{\text{<br>}}$$→ PF2548 → PF2546 → M299

So:

• E-M81 is the parent clade

• PF2546 is a major downstream branch

• M299 is (the dominant) terminal branch, i.e., a currently known end-point in the phylogenetic tree for your sample

• The M299 has a probability of 29 %. The PF2546 branch itself is confirmed with a probability of about 45 %, while a 20 % probability is carried by the subclade A5604. In other words, roughly 35 % of the result falls into the category of “unsupported subclade.”

• All these results so far are obtained with “No known SNP” selected. 

• When the SNP is set to Z827, L19, or M81, the “unsupported subclade” probability drops to 16 %, with 54 % assigned to A5604—a subclade of PF2548, which is itself upstream of PF2546.  This later subcladed carries now a probability of 30 %. In this case we have: 

E1b1b → V257 → M81 → PF2548 → A5604

PF2548 vs. E-M81

PF2548 is to the Numidians What E-M81 is to North African Berbers more broadly.

E-M81: The North African / Berber Marker

• Time Depth: ~5,600–7,000 ybp

• Origin: Early Neolithic North Africa

• Spread: Broad Maghreb — Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya

• Role: Signature of the Berber ethnogenesis, including Capsian–Neolithic fusion and pre-linguistic population unification

🟩 It marks the entire Berber population layer, from prehistoric pastoralists to modern Imazighen. 

PF2548: The Numidian Marker (A Sub-Berber Lineage)

• Time Depth: ~2,800–3,000 ybp

• Origin: Tell Atlas zone (likely north-central Algeria)

• Spread: Concentrated in Algeria and Tunisia

• Role: Signature of Iron Age tribal consolidation — i.e., Numidian-Berber state formation

🟨 It marks the formation of settled tribal Numidian culture and kingdoms.